A year ago, Russian war aims were clear: take Kiev, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Kherson, Zaporizhia, and other major population centres, overthrow the government of Ukraine, kill Volodymyr Zelensky, and occupy all of Ukraine east of the Dneiper River. The parts of the Donbas that they didn’t control, in the oblasts (provinces) of Luhansk and Donetsk, were to be taken at the very minimum of invasion objectives.
That was then. This is now.
The Russians were cut to pieces in their attempt on Kiev, the capital. Not only did the city hold out and the government stay in place, but the Russians were forced to withdraw in tatters back into Belarus from which they came in the first place. They menaced Kharkiv, but in the end, were pushed back into Luhansk through an autumn counter-offensive by Ukraine. The Russians did take Kherson, but here too they were eventually dislodged by the Ukrainian military and forced to cross back over to the east side of the Dneiper. Mariupol was taken after a brutal siege, costing the Russians dearly. They still hold it, but geographically, this is the city closest to the Russian border, farthest from the line of contact.
The world’s second-largest military machine was exposed as a pathetic fraud, and the Ukrainians, with western support, training, and weapons, have mauled the Russians at just about every opportunity since September 2022.
In complete disarray, and with the wheels falling off the whole thing, Putin did what he said he wouldn’t do, drafting some 300,000 young men into the military, while another 100,000 scrambled to get out of the country. Inmates have been released from prison agreeing to serve in combat for six months in exchange for their freedom. But none of these guys will go free.
So, with most of their weapons and equipment shot-up, well over 100,000 dead and double that wounded, the Russians are going to resort to a tactic that once was the go-to of both czarist and communist armies: the full-on frontal attack by massed infantry with the support of artillery. That’s Russian military dogma in a nutshell.
Those 300,000 mobilized citizens turned to soldiers? With only an old uniform from storage, a rifle from WW2, and no or very little training, these poor guys were to become the spearpoint of Russia’s next offensive. They are, instead, the raw materials for a carpet of dead Russians littering the battlefield as the Ukrainians mow them down in an uncanny resemblance to WW1.
The Russian military command is desperate. They’ve been publicly ordered by Putin to take territory up to the borders of Luhansk and Donetsk within one month, and that was two weeks ago. They’ve been undercut by Yevgeny Progozhin and the Wagner Group, who also compete for supplies and credit. They’ve been banging their heads up against Bakhmut, losing around 800 soldiers a day. Same kind of thing around Kreminna to the north and Vuhledar to the south. They have very little armour to support any kind of offensive thrust as most of their tanks and armoured personnel carriers have been damaged, destroyed, or outright taken by the Ukrainians.
And so their plan appears to be this: The first wave is the prisoners. Most are killed or wounded in the advance, and those trying to return to their lines are shot by the mobilized troops who are the second wave. Then the mobilized guys make the charge with the same result, only they get shot by the third line made up of regular Russian troops if they waver. The regulars are used as a last resort, in order to save as many as possible. They have the most training and are viewed as being the most effective.
It seems the great Russian counter-offensive is already underway, and the fact that we’re hearing so little about it speaks volumes.
To make matters worse, the rains are due to come within the next week or so, making the battlefield an absolute quagmire, cancelling out any role Russian mechanized units might have played.
It’s rumoured that the Russian Air Force will finally make a big appearance on the battlefield, owing to a large Russian aviation exercise in Belarus. That said, there’s no guarantee the Russians won’t lose significant air assets through a robust Ukrainian air defence, amounting to yet another humiliation for Putin, his military, and his country at large.
Another thing concentrating the Russian mind is the impending delivery of German Leopard II tanks from western allies, along with Challenger II from Britain, Leclerc from France, and the mighty M1A2 Abrams from the United States. Yes, the Ukrainians face a challenge in getting their tank crews trained on a variety of western battle tanks. But at some point, both machines and crew will be ready, and that opens up an opportunity for a Ukrainian offensive, possibly in May or June, one spearheaded by armour that is much superior to anything the Russians have.
The Russians feel they have to get to the full borders of Luhansk and Donetsk and dig in before any of the Ukrainian push-back starts to take place. Because they know that if they don’t, they never will. These borders represent the bare minimum for the Russians, particularly Putin, to save face.
And saving face is just about the only thing the Russians can hope for in this thing that they started but can’t finish.
NEWSMAGRENFREW 