Best keep an eye on China. And know that China’s probably keeping an eye on you.
The first statement is 100% true. The second is 100% maybe. The concern is 100% real.
First, let’s differentiate between the CPC, or Communist Party of China, and the people of China, aka the Chinese. For the balance of this article, when referring to the Chinese, the reference is to the CPC and not the people.
China is a strategic adversary, a polite way of saying that they’re one day likely to be a strategic enemy if they’re not there already. And by this we’re not talking about an economic rival, but rather a potential military threat. Not to our home shores, although images of hordes of Chinese balloons floating through our skies were given sustenance recently with the shooting down of a Chinese “weather” balloon, and perhaps a couple of others as well.
But they do represent a significant threat to the current world order. The Chinese wish to supplant the United States as the pre-eminent power on Earth, both financially and militarily. And they’ve been busy the past couple of decades pouring money into all sorts of things with an eye to this goal. China has inserted itself insidiously into all aspects of the world’s economy, and has bankrolled huge projects in foreign countries, often third-world countries, as a way of leveraging themselves into a position of influence, not just in their own neighbourhood, but around the globe. Their military, once large but ineffectual, has now blossomed into a military that is huge and heavily armed with modern weapons and delivery systems. Once reliant on Russian weapons, the Chinese now make their own after reverse-engineering the Russian stuff and stealing technology from the rest of us.
As the world’s most populated nation, with some 1.412 billion people, it was never a surprise that China had the world’s largest army. But it was poorly trained, often-times poorly equipped, and didn’t really pose a threat to anyone other than those blessed with sharing a border with the behemoth.
Even then, it was a paper tiger, evidenced by the ass-whupping it got back in 1979 when the Chinese decided to invade and “punish” the Vietnamese for, well, being Vietnamese. It was a humiliation for China, though they made it sound like they got what they wanted, which, of course, they didn’t.
As big as their army was, China was relegated to being a land power only, as it couldn’t possibly find a way to get those assets anywhere other than by land. And since the U.S. ruled the oceans, that wasn’t going to change.
Today, China has the largest navy in the world, and a brand-spanking new one to boot. More ships than the Americans even, although the quantity versus quality argument is legitimately in play. Nevertheless, the Chinese these days don’t feel they need to beat the Americans in a land war, but rather in a naval and air war. So they loaded up on planes, missiles, ships, missiles, cyber warfare, and more missiles. Unlike Russian equipment, a lot of this stuff might actually work, which makes China particularly dangerous.
Also concerning is the aggressive stance that China has taken in claiming the entire South China Sea as its territorial waters and threatening to re-take Taiwan by force if it has to. The Taiwanese have security guarantees from the Americans to be equipped with weapons should China make a move, but doesn’t have a guarantee of American military involvement in its defence. Sort of like Ukraine, in a way.
Scooting across the globe, let’s talk about Ukraine for a moment. The Chinese are considering giving weapons to the Russians to help them in their attempted take-down of their neighbour, Ukraine. It’s not because China has anything against Ukraine, and it’s not even because China has an enduring fondness for Russia, because it doesn’t. In truth, China hates Russia. It just hates America more.
It’s been proposed that one of the main reasons for the west pumping arms and ammunition into Ukraine is to bleed the Russians down to the point where they can’t present any more of a threat moving forward. And it may work. And if it does, the west dramatically weakens a geo-political rival and a perpetual pain in the ass. But it’s come at a cost, as western nations, the United States included, are witnessing their own weapons reserves starting to feel the pinch as they pump systems into the battle space.
The Chinese look at this and say “hmmm,” or whatever it is they say in China when they want to say “hmmm.” By providing Russia weapons, they may prolong the war and achieve two mighty strategic rewards. One is keeping the U.S. busy in Ukraine and the other is guaranteeing a weakening of Russia. And why would the Chinese seek to weaken Russia?
Because they hate them, share a border with them, have fought wars with them, and have had traditional Chinese lands stolen by them. If it weren’t for the existence of the United States, China and Russia would be existential enemies.
Siberia once belonged to China, and China will always remember. They’ll carry a grudge for a thousand years if they have to. But they’re not ever going to forget.
To hear Vladimir Putin and Xi-Jing Ping talk about a Russo-Chinese friendship that “knows no limits” is pretty tough. It’s the kind of boilerplate authoritarian bullshit that makes the rest of us shake our heads. They both lie through their teeth, would cut each other’s throats if they thought they could, and are only enduring friends because of their joint hatred of the United States. It’s the old “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” from Sun Tsu’s The Art of War, required military reading around the world, authored by Sun Tsu, a Chinese general from 2500 years ago.
That Sun Tsu guy wasn’t stupid.
NEWSMAGRENFREW 