On Monday, June 18, no fewer than four federal byelections are scheduled to take place, two in Manitoba and one each in Ontario and Quebec. The results of these byelections will say a lot about a lot of things, and not necessarily reflect exclusively on the prime minister and his Liberal government.
Usually, byelections mid-term tend to be a judgement on the governing party, and the results are often unkind to that very government and party. Factor in the predictable voter fatigue that usually rears its ugly head after people become tired with a sitting government, in this case one that’s been in power for eight years. So in any other time, Monday would more than likely turn out to be absolutely brutal for the Liberals. But there’s a more than decent chance that the Libs will hold their own, winning two of the seats, possibly three of them, and simply unbelievably all four. Let me just say that if the Liberals sweep all four ridings, some bettors playing long shots are going to have a really big payday. For the record, though, I don’t see that happening.
Notre-Dame de Grace Westmount is a Montreal riding previously held by outgoing member Marc Garneau. It’s been Liberal virtually since Moses came down the mountain with the tablets. The only real threat to the Liberals in this riding has been the New Democrats, but that was during the so-called Orange Wave of 2017. Former party president Anna Gainey carries the Liberal banner this time out, and it’s expected she’ll be able to hold the riding for the Liberals. An interesting side-note will be the performance of Green co-leader Jonathan Pedneault, as he’s also on the ballot in NDGW.
Scooting over to the Manitoba riding of Winnipeg South-Centre, which used to be the stomping grounds of former Liberal minster Jim Carr, now deceased. The Liberals have held this seat for all but four of the last 35 years, and Jim’s son Ben is taking up the torch from his deceased father for the party. Pierre Poilievre haș labelled the riding a “Liberal stronghold” which, I guess, takes a little pressure off the Conservative candidate but can hardly be classed as a ringing endorsement from the party leader. Look for Winnipeg South-Centre to stay within the Liberal fold.
So that’s how the Liberals get at least a split. It’s the other two ridings where things get interesting.
Oxford is a riding in southwestern Ontario that has gone Conservative for all but eleven years since 1949, so you can kind of call it a “Conservative stronghold.” And in any other year, that would rarely be argued against. But there’s a problem. The riding was held by Tory Dave Mackenzie for twenty years and came open when Mackenzie retired from parliament. His daughter ran for the nomination to replace him but lost. In an example of the internecine warfare that sometimes spills out of nominations, Dave Mackenzie became disgusted with the “process” and threw his endorsement over to the Liberal candidate, David Hilderley, even campaigning on his behalf and in opposition to Conservative candidate Arpan Khanna, someone who worked as part of Poilievre’s leadership campaign. To be honest, even the Liberals kind of say that they can’t take this riding, even with the in-house fighting on the other side. Watch for the Conservatives to hold it, but by how much will be the question. This is a byelection and won’t change the power balance in parliament. But if it’s close, it could be a harbinger for the next general election.
Finally, the main event: Portage-Lisgar in Manitoba. This riding was held by former Conservative interim leader Candice Bergen and is generally considered to be a slam-dunk for the Tories. But the problem for the Conservatives doesn’t come from the left and the Liberals or NDP, rather it comes from the even further right in the name of Maxime Bernier and the Peoples’ Party of Canada. The last time around, the PPC garnered almost 22% of the vote in the riding, and that was without Bernier, the leader and poster boy of the PPC movement. This is a heavy right-leaning riding, and now there’s the prospect of a vote-split on the right, one exacerbated by a populist federal leader parachuting into town. There is absolutely no question that Pierre Poilievre cannot afford to lose this riding, especially to another conservative, albeit someone even more far-right than Pierre himself, which is saying something. This in-riding civil war among conservatives will be the focal point of most election watchers Monday night, from all parties. If Bernier can successfully lean in to the anti-mask, anti-vaccination, anti-immigration, anti-climate change, conspiracy theory, freedom convoy crowd, of which there are many about in Portage-Lisgar, then this could be a long night for Conservative candidate Branden Leslie and for Poilievre himself. I’m going to call the Tories on this one, and grudgingly I’ll have to admit that I prefer Poilievre to Bernier. But a Bernier win would certainly be fun. Bernier by himself is no threat in the House of Commons, and the egg on Poilievre’s face would be priceless. He would certainly have some explaining to do in caucus should he drop a “safe’ riding to Bernier and his anti-everything crowd. It’s a damned good thing nobody votes Liberal in this riding or the Liberal candidate could come right up the middle of a split vote on the conservative side. Pierre would be as apoplectic as he would be embarrassed. He was angry before. Could you imagine if a Liberal snuck up the middle because of Bernier? If only I could be a fly on the wall.
So, in closing, I see the Liberals and Conservatives splitting the four ridings between them, but with the Conservatives having some hurdles in their path that weren’t there before. It should make for an interesting night.
NEWSMAGRENFREW 