While there was a positive blip in polling support just before the Christmas holidays, the numbers since indicate an affirmation of what appears to be an undeniable trend, that the popularity and support for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Liberals is on a downward trajectory.
A recent Abacus poll has indicated that, while the Liberals caught some positive wind at the expense of the Tories in December, they’ve now dipped back down to where they were before, with 24% of voters indicating they would vote Liberal if an election were to be held right now, compared to 41% for the Conservatives and 18% for the New Democrats.
Worse still are the approval ratings that Canadians gave to the government as a whole, and to the prime minister in particular. A robust 54% of those polled indicated that they disapproved of the Liberal government, while 59% claimed to have a negative view of Justin Trudeau.
Do these numbers signal the death knell for the Trudeau Liberals? Perhaps not, but they sure as hell don’t look very good, especially as the runway toward the next federal election begins to get shorter and shorter. About the only thing the Liberals have going for them at the moment, and it may not amount to as much as maybe it once did, is the fact that only 32% of those surveyed had a favourable impression of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. But the Liberals can’t afford to hang their hat on that exclusively since, after ditching his glasses and ties, the new Poilievre, despite his foibles, appears to at least “look” more prime ministerial and has received a positive bump for his efforts.
With the supply and confidence agreement the government has with the NDP, the Liberals can hang on until June 2025 before the next election rolls around, provided they keep the NDP happy enough policy-wise to maintain their support.
Seventeen months is a long time in politics, where fortunes can change in weeks, even days. But still, the current polling numbers offer little comfort and must have just about every Liberal MP squirming in their seat with the jitters that accompany the prospect of electoral defeat. Sure it’s just one poll, a random sampling of 1500 Canadians, but other polls are in the same ball park, so this tank in popularity is particularly concerning for the government.
The Liberals have a lot to overcome if they are to bounce back into a competitive position in the coming months.
Some of the angst, or anger, is directed at policy. The carbon tax, policies around inclusion, vaccine mandates and their aftermath, policies around equity, equality and immigration, and perceived “woke-ness” in general cause a large number of Canadians to get behind any effort to show the Liberals the door. These issues, which cause anger within an entrenched group of Canadians, will not go away, especially as the Conservatives act like bellows to the fire, literally fanning the flames of dissent and outrage, much of it feigned, but still fair-game in today’s reality of partisan politics as a blood sport. These are the people who will vote Conservative without fail, and what makes them strong is the fact that they turn out to vote every single time, even if hooked up to life support. It’s almost a religious thing, no surprise given the influence of religion on so-called social justice issues. I would estimate that a full 33% of Canadians fit in this category. If the Conservatives can somehow snag six or seven percent from somewhere outside of this group, the prospect of a Tory majority government in mid-2025 becomes almost a certainty.
Second is the personal vitriol that has been whipped up against Justin Trudeau himself. As the face of the Liberal government, he is uniquely associated as the poster boy for any of the issues in the previous paragraph, the personification of all the things that entrenched base despises. Plus those socks.
Trudeau is viewed in many negative ways by his detractors. Smug, privileged, elitist, out-of touch, a dandy, a pretty boy, somebody who looks down his aristocratic nose at other Canadians who struggle to make ends meet. And I’ve already mentioned the socks. His recent family vacation over the Christmas holidays has folks howling with outrage again, although the trip to Jamaica to stay at a friend’s place was cleared by the integrity commissioner in advance. Although he stayed at no cost, the Conservatives claim that by accepting lodging at a place that would otherwise allegedly generate $80,000 if rented to another family in similar circumstances puts the vacation in the “he just doesn’t get it” category. Fair enough. There are always going to be people who wish to sniff out influence-peddling in politicians, but the friend has been a friend of the Trudeau family for years dating back to Justin’s father Pierre. The resort in question was inherited by the friend’s wife from her British father, a renowned British aristocrat. If they feel comfortable foregoing the potential rental potential to allow the Trudeaus to stay there, then some might fairly claim that’s their business. But others may see it as almost a bribe, something that some say leaves the prime minister beholden to the resort owner and family friend for future favours. Admittedly, the optics aren’t the best. And yes, especially when more Canadians than ever struggle with the basic necessities of life. But would we prefer our prime minister and family spend the holidays at home, or in some Super 8 somewhere? I don’t know, but vacations and the Trudeaus have always led to criticism from many quarters, and ethics commissioner notwithstanding, this is no different.
Thirdly is the very real phenomenon known as voter fatigue, that being the idea that a government, or a prime minister, or both have been in power long enough and that it’s “time for a change.” This, to me, is probably the most potentially damaging to the current government as they’ve been in power since 2015 and by 2025 that would be ten years, which in politics, is a long time, unless you live in places like Russia, China, Iran,North Korea, Belarus, et al. Once this notion enters the psyche of the electorate, it’s a son of a gun to do anything about it.
Again, all the Conservatives need to do is snag 6-7% of Canadians pissed off about anything in points 2 or 3 to form a majority government.
Some Liberals, and some of their supporters, feel that Trudeau stepping down to be replaced with someone else is the answer to these problems, but that’s not necessarily the case. Kim Campbell put a fresh face on the Progressive Conservatives by replacing the retiring Brian Mulroney. She got hammered in the 1992 election where the Tories went from majority government to just two seats in parliament overnight. Remember Paul Martin taking over from Jean Chretien? The unbeatable white knight saviour of the Liberal Party was reduced to a minority government in the next election then lost power to a majority Conservative government led by Stephen Harper in the next federal election after that. Sometimes shining white knights are simply the people who are going to take the beating as the electorate seeks to punish the party in power. That could very well happen here if Trudeau were to leave.
I will say this.
Trudeau is a fighter, and he’s far from the pansy many of his detractors would have us believe. He’s tough, and you can see it in his eyes when he’s pissed, the same eyes as his dad, Pierre Elliot Trudeau, also a warrior. He’s an excellent campaigner and is seemingly at his best when the chips are down and the shit is flying. And he absolutely can’t stand Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. So rather than fade quietly into the good night, he relishes the thought of going against Poilievre on the campaign trail, as a personal thing and, in his view, for the good of the country.
When he was a recently inducted Liberal MP, Trudeau was challenged to a boxing match, for charity, by Conservative senator Patrick Brazeau, a bigger man torso-wise with a more obvious fighting background. Charity or no charity, it was obvious that Brazeau relished the prospect of beating the bejesus out of Trudeau. To the dismay of many Liberals, Trudeau accepted. I mean, tough in spirit isn’t necessarily the same thing as tough in action, and his bench mates held their breath as the event approached. Predictably, Brazeau came out swinging from his heels, throwing everything including the kitchen sink at the rookie Liberal MP. Trudeau did his Muhammed Ali bob-and weave, ducking, feinting, absorbing blows all the while, the spectators either roaring with approval at the beating he was taking or dreading the prospect of a thoroughly pummelled Member of Parliament lying inert on the canvass. Didn’t look too good there for awhile.
But Brazeau became tired from flailing away at the future prime minister, and that’s when Trudeau struck back, pop-pop-pop followed by biff-biff-biff, followed by pop-pop-pop and it was over. Trudeau punched the hapless Brazeau silly and the fight was stopped in the third round. Victory Trudeau.
Pollsters and critics counted his dad out after he lost the 1979 election to Joe Clark. The elder Trudeau went for his walk in a snowstorm, contemplated retirement, then came roaring back in 1980 with another majority victory, one that led to the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
So when it comes to Justin Trudeau, it might be unwise to count him out just yet. I sure as hell wouldn’t underestimate him.
NEWSMAGRENFREW 