How far away are we from a Ukraine with nukes?
As far-fetched as that may sound to many, I’m sorry to say that it may not be that much of a stretch at all.
NATO (read the United States) continues to be cowed by Putin’s continuous threats to widen the war, or even go selectively nuclear, if the west continues to supply Ukraine with arms, ammunition, and training along with all the other help they’re providing. But every time the west crosses one of Vlady’s “red lines,” it all comes up crickets from Russia.
I’ll state this plainly. Russia is barely a match for Ukraine alone. What, in anyone’s mind, would have them thinking that Russia could handle Ukraine and Poland both? What about throwing Rumania into the mix? Still not sure? Let’s throw the Baltics, including Finland and Sweden, in there too. Could Russia handle that group of nations? Of course, if those seven nations added to Ukraine faced Russia, you might just as well throw in the rest of NATO, because those seven nations are all members of the NATO alliance, which means that NATO’s Article 5 has been invoked. There is absolutely no way in any scenario that Russia would have any chance against this. No nation could. It would be the end of them.
So why does the west (read United States) self-deter?
Well, because they’re afraid. They’re afraid that, despite everything I’ve already said in that last paragraph being true, they’re not really sure if Putin is crazy enough to go there. He’s not. He’s just full of shit, as always. It’s a Russian thing.
The United States could wipe the table with Russia in a tick under eleven minutes if they felt they ever had to, but the Americans worry about things like oil prices and things that piss of the American people, or rather, electorate. So there it is, money. And politics. Again.
So let’s just say that America does not provide Ukraine with what it needs to bring Russia to the negotiating table on fair terms, either through the slow drip of weapons and supply, or by pulling the plug completely courtesy of a Donald Trump victory in a couple of weeks. Remember, Trump says he can solve the whole thing in one of his five-minute “perfect” phone calls. Poor Ukraine if we ever get to that point.
Back to my opening statement.
In Soviet times, Ukraine was more than just the breadbasket of the Soviet grain industry, they were the empire’s arsenal, especially when it came to stuff like missiles, aeronautics and milling. Ukraine has a civilian nuclear sector that makes available the fissile material needed for a weapon, they have the metallurgy, and the technical know-how to ramp up their fissile material to weapons grade. I believe, that if prompted by necessity, Ukraine could have a deliverable nuclear weapon within six months. Yes, six months. Remember, these are the people who have revolutionized drone warfare out of sheer necessity.
Ukraine can not stand toe-to-toe with Russia militarily on its own without outside help, owing exclusively to the much greater manpower potential of the Russians, the only advantage Russia enjoys despite the rampant high degree of incompetence, drunkenness, and primitive thinking that manpower advantage represents. It’s also been demonstrated that their weapons systems absolutely suck, much to the humiliation of Putin.
If they have to, and in an environment of national survival, they may well move forward with a military extension of their civilian nuclear program, and who’s to say they’d be wrong for doing so?
And while we’re at it, what about Sweden and Finland? Sweden makes all kinds of sexy things militarily, in fact it’s a world leader in quality across the board. If they needed to, they could have a weapon in three months. The Finns, similar to the Swedes, would probably take a month longer. I don’t think Poland could produce one on their own, but they could in cahoots with Rumania.
But then there’s the prospect of something even more frightening.
Germany.
Of all the nations on God’s earth, Germany is one of the powerhouses, and it could ramp up to fielding a weapon faster and in greater volume than any other nation not currently possessing nuclear weapons. And plus, there’s that history.
We see Japan taking a much more muscular tone militarily after 75 years of being the most pacifist nation on earth, a product of their second world war experience. Russia, China, and North Korea are all in the Japanese backyard, if not on the front porch. If Japan can change its constitution to include the possibility of offensive warfare, then it seems to me the Germans could come out of their own pacifist slumber as well. I’m only thankful that they’d be on our side this time out.
So, why don’t we, the west, just get on with the business of supporting Ukraine to the point where Russia exhausts itself (Russian mothers don’t like their sons dead any more than any other mothers) and finally implodes to warm applause from the audience. Well, that is, the audience that’s not Iran, China and North Korea.
Here’s another thing. If Ukraine defeats Russia, it’s the end of the regime in Iran. North Korea would be teetering too, and China would have to suspend its plans to take Taiwan. Plus, the Chinese economy is about to go for a tank, so this is a dangerous time in the South China Sea. By kicking out the chair from beneath their “friendship without limits” with Russia and the rest of these bad actors, we may be able to prevent a major conflict in China. Their window of attack is closing, making them dangerous.
Perhaps we can send them a clear snapshot of their future by defeating Russia in Ukraine.
NEWSMAGRENFREW 