Iran is in a predicament entirely of their own making, and sad for them — and good for us — everything they do from this point forward makes it worse and worse for them, and conversely, good for us.
That “good for us” thing I popped in there is a lengthy article all by itself, but for the purposes of this one, certain parts of the rationale behind that statement will be shared here.
I’ll spare you the history/current events lesson here because I simply want to get to the point I want to make this morning. That is that Iran, Islamic Republic of, is a paper tiger at best when it comes to military capability. And, as Iran is a key ally of Russia and its leader, Vladimir PotatoHead, this has a lot of meaning attached to it.
Iran doesn’t go up against other nations face-to-face militarily, not since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980’s, a war that ended only after the mutual exhaustion of both parties involved. Instead, Iran funds proxy militias around the Middle East, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen (apologies to any other Islamic militias I may have missed) and uses these proxies to harass their enemies, primarily Israel, and until recently, Saudi Arabia. But Iran stays on the sidelines cheerleading the myriad atrocities performed on their behalf by these militias, playing a game of regional peekaboo that anyone with cognizance can see through. I suppose they feel it gives them some “plausible deniability” when it comes to the havoc caused by their hired guns who they keep fed with missile and rocket technology while Iran itself struggles with a quality of life that its citizens resent having to shoulder.
But Iran is loathe to fight on its own out in the open, and for good reason. Simply, it would be crushed.
After Israel totally buried Hamas in Gaza — quite literally — it took the opportunity to go after Hezbollah in Lebanon, using the pretext that Hezbollah had been shelling northern Israel in support of Hamas in the south. Hezbollah had to do this to maintain its credibility as a protector of Islam against hated Israel. They had to lob shells and missiles at the Israeli state because not to do so would be a terrific loss of face for Hezbollah itself, and for its benefactor Iran. Also, the assassination of the highest-ranking Hamas leader at a funeral in Tehran sealed the deal, so missiles would have to fly from Tehran to Tel Aviv.
So Iran was forced to respond, which they did by firing a combination of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Israel, after first telegraphing that they would do so and also telegraphing the flight paths and trajectories of their own missiles. Huh? Did you read that right?
Yup, you did. You see, the Iranians wanted to give the impression that they were fighting-mad and were now going to punish the Zionists with this missile barrage, all well and good. But by giving advance notice behind the scenes, they allowed Israeli air defences, supported by U.S. and British warships, the opportunity to shoot down just about every man-jack of them, causing virtually no damage. To the Arab and Muslim world, it showed that Iran meant business. To the rest of the world, it showed that Iran didn’t want to inflict mass casualties or damage, knowing that to do so would result in an overwhelming Israeli military response.
The Israelis did respond, but just to the degree of making the point that they could, whenever they wanted, lay a hit on Iran. The measured Israeli response was just that, measured. And along the way, they happened to take out a few Russian air defence systems, something that would bear fruit in the near future.
Then Israel decided it would be a good time to explode thousands of pagers used by Hezbollah for their internal communications, followed by bombings that decapitated the leadership of the group. In the Islamic military world, that qualifies as another slap in the face requiring a response. And so respond Iran did, huffing and puffing, and blowing their own house down. They fired another 200 missiles at Israel, this time without the niceties of “letting” anyone know their targets, because dammit, this time Iran meant business.
Israel shot down the lion’s share of these missiles as well, truly humiliating for Iran, but what were they supposed to do? Other than look like a bunch silly assholes, a look they manage without much effort or outside assistance. But this time, the world waited anxiously for the Israeli response, because there was no way the Israelis were going to make a polite little strike this time. Once, maybe. More than once? Dudes, it’s Israel.
The strike came this past weekend, and instead of hitting oil or nuclear infrastructure as many feared, it concentrated on the factories involved in making these missiles and the solid fuel labs that make the stuff that propels them. And along the way, across Syria, Iraq, and in Iran itself, Israel took out S-300 anti-aircraft batteries (Russian yard sale junk). Not only was there not a single Israeli aircraft scratched in the mission, it was revealed, once and for all, that Russian-made military hardware is pathetic.
So now, if needed, Israel could hit Iran again, at its leisure and in its own self-defined scope, and the Iranians can do jack-squat against it. That’s how we spell humiliation and loss of face in Iran today, and by extension, Russia.
And it’s not just Israel. Don’t think that this little back and forth between Israel and Iran hasn’t come to the attention of the deep thinkers in the American military. They already suspected the S-300 was shit, they just had no idea how much so. Same goes for the Russian top-of-the-line S-400 system, another piece of junk littering the battlefields of Ukraine, and in Russia itself.
My goodness, if the Israelis can walk in untouched against this level of air defence, imagine what the Americans could do if they were ever called upon to fight directly against Russia or China themselves?
Iran, in their futile stupidity, has just made things dramatically worse for themselves and their big brothers in Moscow and Beijing, and as well, New Delhi. These nations all field weapons systems, particularly air defence, that are untested in action, and when they are, they fail, miserably.
So, if one were a follower of all of this, I guess we just sit back and wait to see how long it is before the Iranian regime collapses under the weight of their own incompetence, possibly to be followed by something similar in Russia, and maybe if the planets align the right way, China too.
Might be a lot to hope for a Monday, but a guy can dream.
NEWSMAGRENFREW 