The BRICS family of nations got together this past week to talk about steps they might take to remove themselves from the influence the west has, and primarily America has, over the affairs of the world. BRICS, standing for Brazil-Russia-India-China-South Africa, is an organization of nations that resent the influence of the United States in world affairs. Other nations that have membership are Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates, but they didn’t make the cut for the title acronym. Countries like Saudi Arabia have been invited but not yet joined, and NATO ally Turkey even attended the get-together last week.
What a pleasant collection of authoritarian dictators that must have been.
Originally put forward by Russia’s Vladimir Putin as a counterweight to NATO, the European Union, and other groupings deemed controlled by the Americans, these nations resent the fact that they have to follow the “international rules-based order,” which for them is code for doing what America wants. Several of the members have faced the clout of US-led sanctions, Russia and Iran being the two most recent.
They even talked about coming up with their own currency to get away from dependence on the American dollar, and to a lesser extent, the EU’s euro. Good luck with that.
These nations are kind of lumped together by their belief that they can damn-well march into a neighbouring country if they feel that country is culturally the same as theirs, or if that nation has a significant ethnic population similar to theirs. Russia is famous for this. They move in, take a place over, ship everyone who was there out of there, then settle the place with Russians. Then forever they can claim the territory to be “Russian” by virtue of the fact that Russians now make up the majority of the population. It’s been their go-to move for centuries.
They’re attempting to do the same thing right now in Ukraine, a place they’ve already done it to back in the 1930’s, a period Ukrainians refer to as the Holodomor. The Russians used this as a pretext for taking Crimea and now follow the same tactic involving the Ukrainian oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zhaporizhia, and Kherson. Because, as Putin claims, Ukrainians are “brothers and sisters” of Russians, whether the Ukrainians like this or not.
Back to BRICS. Of the nation’s assembled, several unequivocally hate one another and are historical enemies. That includes Russia and China, China and India, Turkey and Russia, Iran and Turkey, even Iran and Russia. And even Russia and India. The existence of the United States-led world order is what keeps them taking to one another. North Korea would fit right in with this gang, but I guess they weren’t invited.
I‘d like to focus on Russia and China, my personal favourite of the cynical relationships on display. These two nations, and of course their leaders, have publicly expressed their “friendship without limits.” That’s why China provides Russia help in its war with Ukraine by buying Russian oil and gas dirt cheap — they have the Russians over a barrel, so to speak — and also provide chips and technology the Russians can’t access on the world market owing to the stranglehold of American-led sanctions. It’s a real bitch to have to get parts from other countries to make your own weapons, but there we are.
But the Chinese are concerned. First, the Russians are getting their asses handed to them, which by the way, may not be a problem with the Chinese after all. Second, Russia has proven that their weapons systems suck, especially when facing western weapons on the battlefield. China has a lot of Russian weapons still, and their own home-grown weapons systems are built around stolen Russian designs. Yeah, they spy on each other big-time. It’s what friends without limits do, I guess. Thirdly, Putin as much as threatens the use of nuclear weapons every time the west provides Ukraine with new weapons, additional weapons, or permission to use those weapons inside Russia itself. China doesn’t want this, none of this to happen, and is very upset with Putin for even suggesting such a thing. And finally, China is not happy with North Korean soldiers going to fight — sorry, die — alongside Russians in Ukraine. China fears that the deal between Russia and North Korea will include rocket technology, something South Korea views as an existential threat. China does not want to see a new war between the Koreas because it knows the south would prevail handily and then China would be looking at a South Korean-influenced North Korea, supported by the United States, on its front porch.
And then we come to the real deal between these two friends: Manchuria, or more specifically, Northern Manchuria.
You see, it’s Chinese, populated by a majority Chinese, has been for as far back as anyone can remember, except that the Russians took it from China in the mid-1800’s when China was weak and could do nothing. China has a long memory.
If China were to somehow manage to get the entirety of Manchuria back into the fold, they would reunite the dislocated Chinese with the homeland, but also give China direct access to the Pacific Ocean, access not contained by the two island chains further to the south. That Russian port of Vladivostok would look pretty good as a home base for key elements of the Chinese Navy, and allow China to extend its influence northwards towards the Arctic as well.
So, if Putin’s gamble in Ukraine fails to the point where Russia itself crumbles under the strain of its own corruption and incompetence, don’t be surprised if you see the Chinese just walk up there and take the rest of Manchuria for themselves. What could the Russians do about it? Russia usually has a numerical advantage in manpower when it comes to conflicts with other nations. But they wouldn’t with China, not by a long shot. And since they share a land border, China could easily leverage those superior numbers in a way they can’t with, say, the United States. And while they’re at it, why stop there? They could chop off a fairly significant chunk of the Russian Far East if they wanted to. The only thing saving Russia from this level of calamity is the fact that the Americans wouldn’t like that too much themselves and would, ironically, intervene on behalf of Russia.
Which is the very same world-order they all hate. Coming to save Russia from their BRICS buddies chewing away at the Russian carcass.
NEWSMAGRENFREW 