Pierre Poilievre exhorted voters to “Bring it Home.”
The voters in his riding responded with “Send him Home.”
And so they did, those very wise people of Carleton, a riding in the South Ottawa area. They gave the seat to Bruce Fanjoy, the Liberal, instead.
It was an election that defied explanation, and yet I understand pretty much everything about how it went down and came to pass. But understanding is not the same as agreement.
I completely get how people would want to see the end of three terms of Liberal government, the way they’d likely want to see the end of any three-term government, regardless of political stripe. But then, after that point, they and I part company. Because there is no scenario in a thousand years worth of scenarios that would have me electing Pierre Poilievre to a majority government in order to do it.
The Liberals lost their majority government in Ontario. Yes, they could have done better in Atlantic and Pacific Canada, and yes, a mild resurgence of the Bloc Québécois in Quebec didn’t help either, but it was in Ontario where voters came dangerously close to flirting with disaster by awarding the Tories more seats than was merited. That makes what happened in Carleton even more noteworthy.
At the time of writing, the Liberals were showing 169 seats, needing 172 for the majority. So if they were to snag one-third of those uncounted ridings, they may well get to the magic number, which would be ideal for the country as they wouldn’t have to suck up to the NDP or BQ to pass legislation. The NDP got stung badly by the supply and confidence deal they formed with the Liberals, despite getting legislation important to them passed as part of that deal. So I can understand them being a little gun-shy about propping up the Liberals this time around if they had the option. As to the BQ, they’d want to extort the Liberals into any number of policy moves that would benefit Quebec and likely no one else, so it would be best if they just stayed in their corner and kept their mouths shut, admittedly a near-impossibility.
What kills me about Ontario is the NDP collapse. Not that it happened, but at the result of it happening. Because for the Conservatives to have done as well in Ontario as they did, NDP supporters would have had to vote Conservative.
That’s a hell of a leap. You have to blow through a lot of stop signs to get to the Conservatives from the New Democrats, but that’s what enough of them did, probably because of bitterness towards the Liberals. Which is a bit of a spilled-milk scenario, in that the supply and confidence agreement was as much their idea as it was anyone’s, and they suffered for it. So it must have been galling for them to see the Liberal resurgence under Mark Carney and not receiving a bump of their own. And so, evidently, they voted with their hurt feelings rather than the best interests of the nation at heart. Good for them. Perhaps some day Tim Hortons will put their likeness on a coffee cup to commemorate their awesome effort in pursuit of their own self-gratification.
It’s clear that just under half of Canadian voters voted Conservative, and that’s with the noxious Poilievre at the helm of the ship. Imagine if the party had a leader that wasn’t so toxic?
But that’s a false point to make, because it’s the most hateful of Poilievre’s personality traits that appeals most to the political obstructionists and purveyors of anger that represent a good chunk of his base. The Red Hats wouldn’t support a more moderate and well-behaved leader. They want their version of a poor-man’s Donald Trump. It looks like they’ll have to wait a bit before they can get their next chance. Time to add even more toxic ingredients to the stew they like cook up.
Poilievre himself will be okay. Those types never go away, so his loss in Carleton, while not the best for him, won’t keep him down long. People like this guy are weeds, and they keep popping up, stronger than ever, no matter what you do to try to chase them away.
Some hapless Conservative MP is going to be “asked” to step down from their newly-won seat to make way for Poilievre to run in a by-election, the date of which will be at the mercy of the prime minister. If I was Carney, I’d take my sweet time calling any by-election to fill a seat resigned by a member right after winning it. I’d be in absolutely no hurry to give Slogan Boy a chance to get back into the House of Commons to resume his smirkiness and sub-adolescent behaviour. Plus all those goddamned slogans and rhymes.
The Conservative MP who falls on his or her sword for the leader will be rewarded somehow, at some time, for their courageous and selfless act in allowing the Lover of Fine Whines a seat in the House. But Poilievre needs to be careful here, and avoid the fate of former provincial Conservative leader John Tory — is there a better political name for a Conservative leader? — who lost his seat in the 2009 general election, then lost again in a by-election where one of his MPPs stepped down to give him a shot to get back into the legislature. That’s how you spell OUCH in any political language.
Another humiliation like this for Pierre would be a popcorn and case-of-beer event for someone like me. I would walk away from my sobriety just to drink to that. I would invite people over, but nobody would show up. It is, after all, the 613. But you’re not drinking alone if the dog’s home.
So to avoid this, he may want to seek a seat somewhere in Alberta, where his kind of people live. Or maybe right here in ARP. It might be the only way to unseat our current MP.
As to the results here in Algonquin-Renfrew-Pembroke, they were never in doubt as far as I was concerned. I will say that a Liberal candidate getting over 25,000 votes in a federal election in this riding would be a sign of something changing, unless of course the incumbent matched that vote increase with one of their own. So, if you’re a Conservative in Renfrew County, how do you deal with a Liberal getting 25,000 votes? Simple. Go out and get 35,000 of your own.
I will say this. If I had a choice between Cheryl Gallant and Pierre Poilievre, I’d ……….. never mind.
Anyways, the results are the results.
Poilievre blew a double-digit lead in the polls in just over seven weeks, and damn-near handed the Liberals a majority government in the process. The previous two leaders at least held the Grits to minority governments, so that might leave a bad taste in Tory mouths. But despite that, the Tories haven’t done this well in a long time, winning more seats and a greater share of the popular vote. And let’s face it, the Conservatives bagging over 40% in voter support is 17 times out of 10 a Conservative majority government. But that’s the thing. When you get 41%, and the other guy gets 44%, then that’s all she’s gonna write. It stings mightily, I’m sure, but this was an either-or election, with no time for voices on the fringes, although that 41% Tory vote could well be interpreted as voices from the fringes in its own right.
I live in the 613 area code, so I’m assuming that most of the locals reading this — and there aren’t many — are going to be pissed at what I’m saying. All I can say is go ahead and be pissed. What else would be new?
I suppose I should make sure the batteries in my Blink camera system and the Israeli-designed AI heavy machine gun on my roof are up to date and ready to rock and roll. But if anybody’s thinking of fire-bombing me, you might want to consider getting on it early, given the large number of people I manage to anger in a single business day.
I may have to hire an attendant in a yellow vest and carrying a parking baton to make sense of my driveway, since the Russians, Chinese, North Koreans, Indians, and Iranians all want a chunk of me too. So it’s gonna be busy times out there, I guess.
You’re going to have to fight your way through those folks to get close enough to light-up your firecracker of vengeance and retribution.
Oh, and watch out for the dog shit.
NEWSMAGRENFREW 