There’s almost nobody left alive today who would remember this from a first-person perspective.
For over eighty years, European security has been guaranteed by the United States. The continent that had given birth to two world wars, and plenty of others before that, has seen a peace that is virtually unrivalled by any other time in its history. And as I mentioned, that’s primarily the dividend of having the Americans as a strategic ally.
The enemy is Russia, once known as the Soviet Union, or even the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) as they were once formerly known. From 1945 until 1991, the Russians were the existential threat, poised as they were to roll right over Western Europe, but held in check by NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) which had the United States as its most powerful member. During this time, known as the Cold War, the two sides stared each other down over the barricades erected by the Russians, not to keep us out, but to keep their occupied populations in.
Then, in 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed upon itself, the victim of its many unsolvable problems, primarily involving Russian incompetence and a general backwardness. From that point, with Russia a mere rump of its former self, Western Europe, and in fact Eastern Europe as well (formerly members of the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact) began to experience e a peace dividend, where money no longer had to be spent in untold billions to manufacture and procure arms with which to defend their sovereignty against the big bad Russian bear. The bear was off licking its wounds, and Europe thrived as a result of it.
But the Russians never go away. Never.
Flush with oil and natural gas from the far-flung eastern regions of its empire, the Russians have made what, for them anyways, is a major come-back in the geo-political sphere. And by that I mean that they’ve once again begun to stick their face into everything and anything, almost as if they felt the world needed more Neanderthals running around with bowling shirts and track suits.
They began to cause trouble in territories that were once part of the old Soviet Union. They even invaded a couple just to make sure the inhabitants got a good sense that the Russians were the real masters. Just in case they were harbouring any notions of being anything like independent.
Along came 2014 and the Russians were pissed at Ukraine for removing a pro-Russian president and replacing him with a pro-western president who was talking like he wanted the country to join both NATO and the European Union. That’s just not going to fly with the Russians and their potato-headed president Vladimir Putin, a fellow who fancies himself as a modern Peter The Great, or maybe a poor man’s Joseph Stalin. He sent “little green men” over the border into Crimea, the peninsula belonging to Ukraine but claimed by Russia. Then, in 2022, across the border into Ukraine went some 200,000 Russian drunks and incompetent boobs with third-rate equipment and complete buffoons in command, to show the Ukrainians, and by extension the west, which way was up and which way wasn’t.
And by doing so, they brought the final and ultimate demise of Russia closer to hand.
Instead of NATO folding, packing up, and fleeing the scene, the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused the western defensive alliance to solidify and find its courage. They sent money and weapons, lots and lots of weapons, and trained Ukrainian soldiers to fight the way western soldiers do, and not how drunken Russian soldiers do.
Sweden and Finland joined NATO, which is probably not something Vladdy the Great saw coming, but happened nevertheless. So now it wasn’t just NATO that he had to be wary of, but NATO plus two other advanced countries with advanced militaries, especially Finland, a nation that shares an 832 mile border with Russia. Nice work, Vlad.
Not only did NATO stiffen its resolve, but member nations started increasing dramatically their level of defence-spending, meaning that Russia had managed to take a thirty-two nation alliance created and maintained to defend against Russia and cause every one of its member nations to boost their defence spending. Good one, Vlad.
Poland, in particular, has gone through the spending roof, dedicating no less than 5% of its GDP to defence spending when the alliance members had only committed to 2% previously, with some having difficulty managing even that. It seems the Polish are somewhat fatigued by their place in history as a doormat for other nations to cross back and forth on their way to somewhere else. Sitting between Russia to the east and Germany to the west, the Poles have endured more than their share of historical tragedy, and seem intent on making sure it doesn’t happen again.
It was thirty-five years ago when Poland finally broke the Soviet grip on their nation, something that led to a domino effect of other Soviet-occupied states throwing the Russians out and sending them home to eat their vodka and drink their potatoes.
But it was forty-five years before that, in 1939, when the Germans smashed into Poland and flattened the place, killing and murdering millions. Two weeks after the German attack, the Russians came in from the east to take their share of the spoils, every bit as blood-thirsty and ruthless as the Germans. And there went Poland, again under the boot of others, in this case two others. And it was the same Polish tragedy, repeating itself, visiting the nation once again.
And this is what takes me back to my very first sentence, the one about nobody being alive to remember in the first person.
Because what may be the most ominous result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the re-armament of Germany. Yes, today’s Germany has an army with weapons and all the rest of it , but it’s an army that’s been intentionally hobbled by the war guilt of the past, particularly the Second World War. Germany’s peacetime constitution prohibits it from having the kind of army that can launch offensive operations and also hinders deployment of German troops to foreign nations, particularly European ones with long memories and robust history teachers.
A week ago, Germany announced that it was deploying a 5,000 man armoured brigade in Lithuania, permanently. The last time German troops hung out in Lithuania for any period of time was back in 1941-42 when they were running amok over Europe, and at that time, on their way to Moscow and Leningrad.
In a nutshell, Germany sees the rise of Russian aggression as a potential existential threat to itself and its own security. And so they plan to respond accordingly, and while some applaud that, others are wary of it, and others are downright frightened at the prospect of a Germany with greater military heft and capability.
The United States has drifted once again into one of its predictable, and historical, periods of isolation. Long the guarantor of peace in Europe, America under Donald Trump is seemingly content to have the Europeans fend for themselves when it comes to defence. And that scares the bejesus out of the Europeans, and even Canada.
As a result, not feeling that the Americans are dependable any longer, the NATO nations not including America have resolved to ensure that they can take care of business without having to rely on an America that increasingly presents itself as unreliable. And this goes for the Germans too.
And the Germans are impressive at almost everything they do, whether that be good, bad, or downright horrible.
But what exactly is my point? What is it that nobody left alive can remember from first-person experience?
Over here in Canada, every November 11th we remember conflicts past and present, but it’s the two great wars of the Twentieth Century that capture our attention the most. That’s probably because Canada lost 110,000 men in those wars, and that’s 110,000 men dead. The wounded and missing counts are three times that.
And those 110,000 Canadians died fighting a well-armed, well-trained enemy.
Germany.
Friends, I’m not sounding a clarion call here, and trying to suggest that it’s the return of the Nazis, or the Kaiser, or Frederick the Great, or any of that. I honestly can’t see German tanks rolling across the French frontier any time soon, if ever, but nobody should ever say never, because such a concept doesn’t exist. I’m personally relieved that the Germans are building themselves up, because they had let themselves sink to a military capability well below what they could normally achieve otherwise.
But now the Americans are signalling that they’re not going to be the guarantors of European peace. Hell, the American president behaves as if he’s an ally or an outright asset of the potato that rules Russia.
So now the Europeans need to arm themselves, both quickly and quantitatively.
Including Germany.
And when the Germans set their collective minds to something, the rest of us need to be respectful. Germany, by itself, would have no problem dealing with Russia if nuclear weapons aren’t on the table. Hell, Germany has already demonstrated that they can take on all of Europe should they so choose.
The rest of us will embrace the first thought, and hope the second never happens again.
NEWSMAGRENFREW 