BAT 365: MIXING COFFEE AND POLITICS

It didn’t take long for the BATs — Boys At Timmy’s — to go sour on Mark Carney.

That’s not entirely accurate though, because in order to go sour on something, you must first have had some, albeit grudging, degree of sweetness, although that’s way too strong of a word to apply to the hard men who hold court at Tim Hortons franchises across this great land every afternoon of the week.  Long accustomed to being the primary political thinkers in their respective communities, they never really took to Carney in the first place.  Instead, when they saw the political winds shift biblically from the Conservatives to the Liberals, they decided to hold their fire and seek cover, at least and until their natural instincts of baked-in oppositional thinking kicked back in.

To see them, and to hear them rise from the metaphorical ashes and begin their campaign of perpetual sour grapes is sort of like watching a healthy ecosystem re-balance itself, like a creek snaking its way through a modern subdivision.  Except for the healthy part.

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THE CAPTAIN WHO WENT DOWN WITHOUT HIS SHIP

Pierre Poilievre exhorted voters to “Bring it Home.”

The voters in his riding responded with “Send him Home.”

And so they did, those very wise people of Carleton, a riding in the South Ottawa area.  They gave the seat to Bruce Fanjoy, the Liberal, instead.

It was an election that defied explanation, and yet I understand pretty much everything about how it went down and came to pass.  But understanding is not the same as agreement.

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SMITH AND BYRNE

One is an angry Alberta populist, and the other is, well, just angry.  The first was an old-school prairie radio talk show host in Alberta, the other was someone who attended two post-secondary education entities, but left both before graduation.  The former is the former leader of the Wild Rose Party in Alberta, about as close as we can get, and it’s pretty damned close, to the red-hatted morons of MAGA.  The latter served as a chief advisor to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, but was chased out of the party after losing a Conservative Party power play with Eganville’s Ray Novak.

One is Alberta premier Danielle Smith.  The other is Pierre Poilievre’s chief strategist and former romantic partner, Jenni Byrne.

Both have their political origins on the far right of the political spectrum, where dystopian anger is the watchword.  Both are MAGA acolytes.  One kisses Donald Trump’s fat ass, while the other has the red hat and wears it.  

Both are dangerous to Canada.

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FEDERAL ELECTION APRIL 28, 2025

April 28, 2025.

Not long ago, I shared my thinking on the political lay of the land federally, and in my view, it was pretty bleak.

The wolves outside were huffing and puffing, puffing and huffing, and there was a very real prospect that they were going to blow the entire bloody house down.

Trump in the White House again, and a massive Conservative majority government led by Pierre Poilievre up north, where we are.

Poll after poll after poll as much as confirmed the scenario, until the polls started to change, and not even incrementally really, but dramatically.  But those changes in polling results are something I’ve seen plenty of times before, so I wasn’t ready to go out and buy party balloons and streamers.

And then poll after poll after poll started to come together to form what appeared to be a verifiable trend, that the Liberals were closing ground on the Conservatives, in many cases bouncing back from a 20+ point deficit to within 6-7 points of the leading Tories.

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THE RESURGENCE OF JUSTIN TRUDEAU?

It wasn’t that long ago where Justin Trudeau took his own version of his dad’s famous “long walk in the snow” and determined that he could no longer be Liberal leader, and by extension, prime minister.

Then Donald Trump came along.

The impact was immediate.  Suddenly the Liberals start to rocket up the polls, as Canadians coalesce around their political leadership in response to an unprovoked war with the United States.  And in a twist of cruel, ironic fate, it’s Justin Trudeau that seems to be the choice of Canadians in dealing with a dangerous mad man.

Are these the machinations of the political gods, keen to find opportunities for their own personal merriment?

That woke, feminist, communist traitor with his stupid socks and pretty eyebrows is now Winston Freaking Churchill?

Man, I thought that I had seen it all in my life, but apparently there’s more, much more.

Justin Trudeau is back.

Until later today.

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POILIEVRE “NOT A MAGA GUY”

“He’s not a MAGA guy.”

That’s what U.S.President Donald Trump said this week about Canada’s Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative party and assumed next prime minister after the next federal election, something that can happen sooner rather than later if the political environment versus the United States remains hot or heats up even more.

All razors have two sides, and that’s what makes them dangerous, especially in the hands of little kids, who have a better chance of hurting themselves than others, I guess depending upon what they do with the thing prior to inflicting damage upon themselves.

Things have not been going well recently for Poilievre, as his fortunes appear to be tied to two large things that he may not have accounted for, but really ought to have seen coming:  the resignation of Justin Trudeau and the ascendence of Trump as a de-facto dictator wannabe in the United States.

I can’t understand how theres’s not a 4’ x 8’ bulletin board in the war room over at Fort Tory that prominently features two big-idea questions:

What would we do if Trudeau were to resign?

What would we do if Trump came out swinging at us (Canada) like he intends to cause harm?

I guess those questions somehow eluded the big-thinkers in the Tory War Department, that hothouse of Conservative campaign-fighting, complete with its own rhyming section and slogan machine.  

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ANGER AS A CHOICE

My tone can be harsh, and my barbs can be sharp.

To read my material, one could reasonably assume that I was one miserable human being.  Depending on the day and the topic, one could reasonably be correct in that assessment.  And I completely get that.

By my account anyways, I’m kind of a good guy.  If this was a movie, I’d want to be one of the fellers riding along with the loveable but crusty old  sheriff in pursuit of Black Bart, that bastard who robbed the bank and shot up Miss Kitty’s saloon.

So why the tone?

It’s sometimes an uncomfortable reality that, when you’re fighting the “bad guys,” even the good guys have to employ the kind of tactics that the opposition use to advance their own causes, to use language that they might not appreciate. 

If these were people who could be reached through rational, good-faith  discussion, then sign me up, I could do that all day.  But many of these types are well below that bar, are dismissive of rational argument, and couldn’t give a fig about what we may think. 

To get their attention, you have to piss them off.  And to piss them off, you have to get under their skin, expose their anger, flush them out of their smug certainty that being the loudest voice in the room is the one that ultimately prevails.

It’s tough to land a punch on people like this.  And sometimes, with some of them, you have to take the elevator to the basement to even get within range of landing a punch.

So welcome to the basement.

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POILIEVRE

Am I detecting a little bit of discomfort with Pierre Poilievre?

I sure hope so.

The adolescent leader of the federal Conservatives had the prime minister’s chair all sized-up and had already pictured the office furnishings and drapes, although there are blinds in the prime minister’s Parliament Hill office.  But what a corker it would be if this guy gets nowhere near that office, ever.  But that might be asking an awful lot.

That I don’t like him is obvious.  That I’ve never liked him is more obvious still.  That’s because there is absolutely nothing to like about this man, who behaves like a miserable little bully who loves to throw insults and taunts on the school yard but somehow manages not to get beaten up.  Or reined in by whoever has yard duty or answers the phones in the office.

He’s had a bit of a crisis recently, but not one that he’d ever admit to.

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Après moi, le déluge.

Après moi, le déluge.

Attributed to French King Louis XV, the statement is generally taken to mean that, once Louis and his acolytes are gone and swept away, then the stink is really gonna hit the fan.  The biblical reference to a flood is a nice touch, but I don’t think Louis had the flood as a cleansing event, but rather as a drowning event, but I suppose that’s up for debate and dependant upon perspective.

Today is the day I do something I ought not to do, not because it would be wrong or improper, but because it will be ridiculed and dismissed as completely out of touch.  But then again, imagine me being completely out of touch, yet correct in the end?  The first part happens more than often, the second I can only hope for, although it’s another one of those cases where I desperately don’t want to be right.

I never voted for Pierre Trudeau but recognized his merits despite everyone at the time being in hate with him.  I did vote for Brian Mulroney, twice in fact, and maintained that he was a good prime minister when he was the Political Bandito #1 at the end of his two terms.  Historians now view both men, despite their weaknesses, perceived or real, to be among the best of our prime ministers.  It took me thirty years to be right on one of them, and forty to be right on the other, but lets’s face it, the present lasts for a second, while the past stretches back forever.  As they say, hindsight has 20/20 vision, but in my case it took decades for that vision to become more acceptable.

I don’t feel I have another thirty or forty years to play with, although there might be an outside chance at the former, so I don’t have the luxury of hanging around and being vindicated by the passage of time and history.  So I’ll make my remarks right now, and predictably take dump trucks worth of scorn from all the people in the world smarter than me, which is apparently everyone.  I may even lose readers because of this, but there it is.  The guy in Nigeria has seemingly left me, so all is lost anyways.

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LIBERAL ASPIRANTS MAKING THEIR CALLS

Mark Carney, Chrystia Freeland, and Christy Clark do not read my opinion pieces.  Neither do François-Philippe Champagne, Frank Baylis, and maybe Dominic Leblanc.  If they did, they’d likely detect a whiff of pessimism in my view of the chances of anyone taking over the leadership of the federal Liberals and staging a miraculous, Disney-like turnaround of political fortunes.

Are they all fools?  Hardly.  They didn’t get to where they are by being anything of the sort.  But Michael Ignatieff was no fool, either, and where the hell did he end up?  And some of you are probably even asking, who the hell is Michael Ignatieff?  Which is kind of my point.

What do these people know, or think they know, that I don’t?  The quick, top-of-mind answer is, plenty.  Again, they’re them, and I’m me, and it isn’t even close.

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