BAT 365: MIXING COFFEE AND POLITICS

It didn’t take long for the BATs — Boys At Timmy’s — to go sour on Mark Carney.

That’s not entirely accurate though, because in order to go sour on something, you must first have had some, albeit grudging, degree of sweetness, although that’s way too strong of a word to apply to the hard men who hold court at Tim Hortons franchises across this great land every afternoon of the week.  Long accustomed to being the primary political thinkers in their respective communities, they never really took to Carney in the first place.  Instead, when they saw the political winds shift biblically from the Conservatives to the Liberals, they decided to hold their fire and seek cover, at least and until their natural instincts of baked-in oppositional thinking kicked back in.

To see them, and to hear them rise from the metaphorical ashes and begin their campaign of perpetual sour grapes is sort of like watching a healthy ecosystem re-balance itself, like a creek snaking its way through a modern subdivision.  Except for the healthy part.

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GENERALLY SPEAKING

As Canada’s top soldier, the Chief of Defence Staff serves at the pleasure of the prime minister.  That means that, while Canada’s top soldier, you’re not the top dog when it comes to chain of command.

And that means that when you appear in public, or comment in public, it’s a really good idea that you exercise the prudence necessary to ensure that you articulate the policies, goals, and aspirations of Canada’s military in a way that’s consistent with what the political masters are saying, in this case both the prime minister and the Minister of National Defence.

So, for Lieutenant-General Jennie Carignon, it means that she needs to keep all the ducks in the proper row, as she’s ultimately accountable to Prime Minister Mark Carney and his defence minister David McGuinty.

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A KINDER, GENTLER PIERRE?

After sorting through the “carnage” of the last federal election results, Conservatives have been busy trying to figure out what exactly the hell happened.

The party won more seats, grabbed a bigger share of the popular vote, and made in-roads into areas and ridings where Tories once dared not walk.

Oh, and their leader lost his seat.  Badly.  No recounts needed in Carleton.  The boss got bossed right out of town.

Not long ago, snagging over 40% in public opinion surveys and the popular vote would signal a Conservative majority government, something everyone, including myself, was predicting not long ago.  And not just a simple majority, but a massive one.  Yet even with all the gains the party posted, the Liberals got more of all of the above, in seats, vote share, and their leader actually winning his own riding, interestingly the riding next door to the Tory leader’s.

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CONSERVATIVE TV ADS ARE BRILLIANTLY BRUTAL

I’m a little disappointed at the craftsmanship, the tone, the acting, and the messaging.

Disappointed in a professional sense, in that I come from a history of political marketing, promoting, and advertising.  But that said, from a personal point of view, I’m equally encouraged that the failings alluded to in the first sentence are all to be found in the latest round of Conservative election television ads.

The usually sure-footed Tories have completely lost their way in an area where they were once kings.  They now look like the cut-rate hired help.  I suspect when they kick Pierre Poilievre out of the leadership of that party, they’ll be putting the boot to his communications guy, Sebastian Skamski, as well. 

So these ads, while terrible, are beautiful.

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FEDERAL ELECTION APRIL 28, 2025

April 28, 2025.

Not long ago, I shared my thinking on the political lay of the land federally, and in my view, it was pretty bleak.

The wolves outside were huffing and puffing, puffing and huffing, and there was a very real prospect that they were going to blow the entire bloody house down.

Trump in the White House again, and a massive Conservative majority government led by Pierre Poilievre up north, where we are.

Poll after poll after poll as much as confirmed the scenario, until the polls started to change, and not even incrementally really, but dramatically.  But those changes in polling results are something I’ve seen plenty of times before, so I wasn’t ready to go out and buy party balloons and streamers.

And then poll after poll after poll started to come together to form what appeared to be a verifiable trend, that the Liberals were closing ground on the Conservatives, in many cases bouncing back from a 20+ point deficit to within 6-7 points of the leading Tories.

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