As 2024 draws to a close, calls for the resignation of prime minister and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau come from all compass points, both within and without the party itself. Yet, as the clock winds down on this year and towards the next, Trudeau hangs on, head barely above water, dog-paddling furiously in search of a friendly shore to land upon.
Calls for him to step down from outside the party are nothing new, and neither are calls from his own party, although this is more of a snowball gathering momentum on its roll down the hill. But for the Liberals themselves, there’s an element of inevitability that many of them seem not to sense, perhaps out of a willful need to ignore the obvious, maybe because they’re blinded by other things that aren’t there. Or, perhaps better put, they’re adrift in the desert and, in desperation, they spy what they think is an oasis in the distance, some shimmering mirage of hope that, cruelly, isn’t really there.
When it comes to the Liberals generally, there is no oasis, and really there’s not even a mirage. What does exist in the near distance is a sandstorm that will totally engulf them and erase them from the landscape, buried under the weight of their many problems.
I don’t want to come across as an apologist for Trudeau, because I’m not. He’s in a dilemma of his own making for the most part, and facing the music has always been part of the political landscape. That music is getting louder, a crescendo building in scope as it signals the end of the story, a dramatic tragedy the ancient Greeks might be envious of. Again, his fingerprints are all over the demise. Yes, there have been external factors present beyond anyone’s control, and yes, there’s a lot of untruthful and unfair rhetoric delivered at him by that little punk Poilievre, but all that aside, that’s the way she goes sometimes, and it applies to him as it does to anyone else.
But back to the Liberals clamouring for Trudeau to resign. On one hand, what would anyone expect them to do? They feel that Trudeau, as universally detested as he is, is an anchor dragging down the prospects of electoral success in the next general election, whenever that may be upon us. But here’s the thing. The Liberals have no prospects of electoral success, with maybe 24% of current Liberal members of parliament able to retain their seats in the deluge that’s coming, and that number may well be generous. The only Liberal candidates that will win seats are either veterans who win elections because of their own personal popularity or candidates in ridings that vote Liberal and, for whatever reason, never anything else. And that’s it.
So, in all honesty, changing the leadership is not going to have any positive effect on their chances, there’s just no way.
Liberal insiders at party headquarters whisper over the water coolers who they feel the next leader will be after they cut Trudeau loose. My question would be, who in the hell in their right mind would want to be leader of the party right now? Because, unless they have a really long strategic view of things, whoever it is isn’t going to be the leader for much longer after the election. So, unless the new person is the sacrificial lamb willing to fall on the sword for the sake of the party, or they’re someone who is willing, and allowed, to remain as leader through some really tough years coming up, any person accepting that mantle is an abject fool. Not to mention the fact that, whoever they are, they have to win a seat in the House of Commons.
So toss out the names.
Chrystia Freeland. Mark Holland. Dominic Leblanc. Melanie Joly. Anita Anand. And, of course, Mark Carney.
For the six mentioned, there is that thing called proximity to power, an intoxicant that has the effect of blinding the senses, making one think that maybe, just maybe, they can be the one at the head of a confluence of factors that may coalesce perfectly resulting in a Liberal minority government with themselves being the prime minister. It is the ultimate in political Kool-aid.
I only hope they have people around them who care enough about them as people to make the courageous decision to help these potential leadership candidates see the writing on the wall of inevitability. And save them from the soundest of thrashings. Losing elections is not fun. Getting absolutely destroyed is less so. As self-assured as you might think you are, it’s a damaging blow to the personal psyche, one that many have difficulty rebounding from.
As bizarre as this is going to sound, I’m absolutely sincere in the following belief.
There is only one person who has a chance to lead the Liberal party to any hope of any level of success in the upcoming election. One person who has the name recognition, the savvy, the presence, the intellect, and the communication chops. The one person who can work the crowds and campaign relentlessly, tirelessly and drive through the tough slog. The one and only person who is a demonstrated and proven fighter.
Justin Trudeau.
So, you probably didn’t see that coming, and who would? And for the record, I’m not saying he would succeed, I’m just saying he’s the only one with the chops. Because those other six are all going to get either Kim Campbeled or Michael Ignatieffed, two prime ministerial candidates who got crushed after taking the reigns from deeply unpopular leaders.
So my argument is this.
Either continue with Trudeau, and hope he pulls out some of that Trudeau magic he shares with his old man, or find some person willing to fall on the sword to take the hit for the party. For me, there is no middle ground.
The six pretenders to the throne would be well-advised to jump ship, keep their powder dry, and wait for another opportunity, perhaps four years from now, maybe six to eight years from now.
Because being the leader of the Liberal Party after Trudeau will be a career-ender, both politically and outside the political arena. Offers to sit on corporate boards don’t go to politicians who have lost elections, let alone led their parties to crushing, historical, defeats.
If Trudeau insists on staying on, let him stay on. As a Liberal MP, your chances aren’t going to be any better with anyone else. So you might as well just keep what you have and lean into the wind.
A week is a long time in politics. Things can happen we don’t see coming right now. I’m not saying they will, but maybe, inexplicably, the facts on the ground change, and shift in such a way as to make the race a little tighter. Stranger things have happened.
Do I think that will happen? No, I don’t.
But there’s absolutely no use in trashing what political leadership talent you may retain by needlessly throwing them into the front of a fight they can’t win.
NEWSMAGRENFREW 